Pdf recent developments in population projection methodology. Projection methods projections are an extrapolation of historical data population versus time into the future. Methods for population projections by sex and age european. Cities to be compared should be as similar as possible to city being studied. Ratio extrapolation methods population of a smaller area. In statistics, population may refer to people, objects, events, hospital visits, measurements, etc. B long term methods comperative method the future population can be predicted by plotting the population of other cities. Population projections may be prepared using either subjective or objective methods. Methodology and assumptions for the population projections. We cannot produce a set of standard recommendations for every circumstance, as the estimation and projection process will need to be adapted to accommodate individual requirements. There are three methods of population projection mathematical method, growth component method, and economic method.
Population projection method matrix method one of the latest and potentially most fruitful methods of population projection is to apply matrix algebra. A comparative evaluation of sampling methods for varroa destructor acari. Part 1 is an introduction to population projections. Projections are an extrapolation of historical data population versus time into the future. Science report methods of estimating population and household projections 5 important as the results themselves. Essentially, these methods follow the logic of the cohortsurvival technique. Mathematical techniques of projection fit a line to past population. The accuracy of population projections is generally considered directly proportional to the size of the existing population and the historical rate of growth, and inversely proportional to the length of the time projection. Since notesteins 1945 projection, the cohortcomponent method has.
Population definition, the total number of persons inhabiting a country, city, or any district or area. The component method of population projec tions is usually understood to consist in the separate projection of numbers of males and females in each age. Description whilst the census is crucial for resource allocation and planning, because it is carried out only every ten years, other methods are required for planning in the intervening years. In this paper we describe the statistical methods used by statistics. Graphical extension method graphical projection of the past population growth curve continuing whatever trends the historical data indicate. Population estimates use census as a baseline, add births, subtract deaths and make allowances for migration. Materials of demography, elsevier academic press, second edition, chapter 21. Methods of population estimation and projection health.
Governments use population projections for planning for public health, preparedness, housing, assistance, and school and hospital costruction. Pdf a comparative evaluation of sampling methods for. This projection tool allows planners to examine the future needs of different segments of the population including the needs of children, women in their reproductive years, persons in the labor force, and the elderly. The low total population projection variant is thus obtained from. Varroidae population estimation article pdf available in apidologie 374 july 2006 with 234 reads. The population structures projected by th,e method can be used as inputs. Handout for part 1 introduction to population projections. Saturation method this method has an sshape combining a geometric rate of growth at low population with a declining growth rate as the city approaches some limiting population. The mathematical method is the earliest one to be used for population projection. The techniques used to make population projections can be classified as mathematical models and cohort component projection models. Future populations are derived from a base population through the projection of population change by.1413 349 1389 1046 725 164 1017 994 1403 1441 259 1189 451 211 45 199 748 338 751 372 679 932 453 897 110 488 711 461 824 509 346 562 620 1133 613 287 948 1058 1297 750 598 959 602 1129 1089